In one of my fantasy leagues, one manager posted how many "reaches" each team had according to Yahoo's draft ADP (Average Draft Position). There was a large variance among teams (I was tied for lowest with one) and opinions on the usefulness of ADPs. One manager, who won our league last year, thinks that they are useless. His argument essentially boils down to the fact that the average Yahoo drafter isn't that bright and you should get the players you want when you want them and screw everyone else. Also, you win leagues by going against the grain and doing something that puts you in a position to win even if it means taking a chance on an unknown quantity.
I generally agree but with caveats. I aim for maximum value for every pick. For example, even if I think that Stephen Drew will outperform Jhonny Peralta this year, I will pick someone other than Stephen Drew until either draft situations force me to take him early (such as a huge run on SS that leaves fewer higher ADP players left than there are teams without SS between me and my next pick) or it is only a round before the ADP and another team needs a SS. The team in question took Stephen Drew in Round 11 with pick 146. His normal ADP is 210.
I think this is a reach because there were only two teams left who needed SS, by his calculations. One took J.J. Hardy and the other took Khalil Greene about 4 rounds later. Hardy is, by the vast majority of players, the higher ranked SS. I like Drew more than Hardy but not 4 rounds more; you're simply giving up the possibility of taking a higher ranked player now and grabbing Drew for better value later. While I understand the idea of locking up players you absolutely, desperately must have, I think it was highly unlikely that anyone else would have taken Drew during the next couple rounds. And I don't see Drew as one of those players anyway.
That said, this player values players very differently than I do. For example, I like Snell, Burnett, and Hudson better than Lilly. He does not. He likes Joakim Soria more than Trevor Hoffman. Again, I disagree. The results of the season will tell but I definitely think that he could have grabbed a better pitcher and waited for Drew for a round at least. It's an incremental upgrade, sure, but it's by these inches that leagues are won or lost.
Showing posts with label hesnotfunny. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hesnotfunny. Show all posts
Monday, March 3, 2008
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