Much to the delight of one of my roommates, the Pittsburgh Pirates are not the worst team in the majors this year (for once). That dubious honor belongs to the historically awful San Francisco Giants. I know much ink has been spilled in the Bay area and elsewhere about the woeful Giants but the horror of their play practically compels me to toss in my 2 cents. A few thoughts as the Giants embark on the season of a lifetime (because it will make you want to end yours):
1) Brian Sabean is an idiot. It was fairly obvious a few years ago that the nucleus of the team was aging rapidly and youth needed to be brought in to keep their franchise alive. I know that they got a shiny new ballpark and had to fill seats to pay it off. The best way would have been to look at the long-term health of the franchise to make sure it was in contention each year. Seriously, it wouldn't have been that hard. The NL West was, at the time, one of the weakest divisions in baseball (remember those just barely .500 Padres making the playoffs?). Now, due to Sabean's short sighted mismanagement, the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers are going to be far superior teams for at least the next 5 years if not more. All have to say to Sabean is: Thank you. You've justified every angry expletive I've uttered about your employment during the past few years.
2) Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain do not a team maketh. Yesterday, Tim Lincecum pitched brilliantly; Padres hitters looked overwhelmed at times. Matt Cain wasn't so good in his last start but he's a fine pitcher now and is only going to get better. But as good as they are, they are in for some incredibly frustrating days. You know the old saying that good pitching beats good hitting? Well, decent pitching and decent hitting beats good pitching and horrible hitting. If you don't score runs, you don't win no matter how good your starters are. And so Tiny Tim and Mournful Matt are going to have to learn to lose. Or find a place to get Prozac on the down low.
3) The Giants are going to lose at least 95 games. I know that most pre-season projections had them closer to 88-90 losses. But after watching this team fumble its way through the first week of the year, I had to revise their win-loss estimate down. Way down. As in, one of the worst teams ever, down. Now, this goes against all of my SABR background but just this once, I'm going to let my subjective judgment get the best of me. Why? Well, here are a couple reasons:
A) They have a bad manager who looks like he hates his life. Bruce Bochy has started to make the Bochy face, the managerial equivalent of the Derek Lowe face. He looks disgusted at his team, that sorry, sorry mix of washed up geezers, under-performing veterans, and glorified organizational players masquerading as prospects. Plus, he bunts when there are men on 1st and 2nd with no one out and one of his middle of the order guys is up. If that isn't a recipe for broken spirits and shattered egos, I don't know what is.
B) Brian Sabean has no idea how to work the current trade market. Now, it would be easy to bash Sabean for the A.J. Pierzynski for Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan trade (and can you imagine that Liriano was a throw-in on that trade?), it is far, far fairer to bash him for claiming that he doesn't want to trade away pitching while wanting to upgrade his hitting. Now, correct me if I'm wrong but the Giants basically have no hitting available at any level (apologies to Angel Villalona). Their farm system is as barren as any in the majors (2 top 100 prospects in BA's rankings). So basically, Sabean wants to get hitting but won't give up pitching. He doesn't have any hitting to trade and even if he did, it's unlikely that he would be able to get much more than an even split on any hitting trade if you take into account his horrible talent evaluation skills. He's created a closed system of suck. Garbage in, garbage out. And the end result? Losses. Lots and lots of losses.
4) My strategy of picking up the pitcher going against the Giants (if available) is working well. Randy Wolf went 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO. That's pretty good for waiver wire fodder even in mixed league. I'm sure Justin Germano will do fine tonight. For those of you who are in leagues that reward streaming, it is a good strategy. Hell, it might even be a great strategy! That's how little regard I have for these (not quite) Giants.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
I Don't Feel Your Pain
Nick Markakis is the latest young player to complain about his salary. While Markakis isn't openly complaining like Hamels or Papelbon, he has expressed his discontent. And I have to say to each of these young players: SHUT UP.
Yes, you're ungodly talented and hard working. Yes, you all are being paid less some of your contemporaries. But get some goddamn perspective and get it fast.
The league minimum is $390,000 a year. Markakis will make $455,000 this year. Papelbon made $425,000 last year. Hamels will make $500,000 this year. They can hardly call poverty. Furthermore, they'll all poised to make tens of millions of dollars in the upcoming years.
I know that baseball operates in a bubble and has not seen a significant negative impact from America's economic woes. But these guys are making hundreds of thousands of dollars in their early twenties and are practically assured of being multi-millionaires by the time they're 30. They are the privileged few acting the part of spoiled brats.
I understand feeling undervalued at work and disrespected by one's bosses. But complaining to the media about making more than 95% of the working population is classless and downright insulting. Seriously guys, a little humility would go a long way. Lots of young people in the US are struggling just to find jobs. Be happy that you're pretty much ensured enough money to do anything you want for the rest of your natural lives and leave the complaining Jane routine at home because I and pretty much anyone else I know would kill to be in your shoes.
That, and we'd keep our goddamn mouths shut.
Yes, you're ungodly talented and hard working. Yes, you all are being paid less some of your contemporaries. But get some goddamn perspective and get it fast.
The league minimum is $390,000 a year. Markakis will make $455,000 this year. Papelbon made $425,000 last year. Hamels will make $500,000 this year. They can hardly call poverty. Furthermore, they'll all poised to make tens of millions of dollars in the upcoming years.
I know that baseball operates in a bubble and has not seen a significant negative impact from America's economic woes. But these guys are making hundreds of thousands of dollars in their early twenties and are practically assured of being multi-millionaires by the time they're 30. They are the privileged few acting the part of spoiled brats.
I understand feeling undervalued at work and disrespected by one's bosses. But complaining to the media about making more than 95% of the working population is classless and downright insulting. Seriously guys, a little humility would go a long way. Lots of young people in the US are struggling just to find jobs. Be happy that you're pretty much ensured enough money to do anything you want for the rest of your natural lives and leave the complaining Jane routine at home because I and pretty much anyone else I know would kill to be in your shoes.
That, and we'd keep our goddamn mouths shut.
Monday, March 3, 2008
ADP: Useful or Useless?
In one of my fantasy leagues, one manager posted how many "reaches" each team had according to Yahoo's draft ADP (Average Draft Position). There was a large variance among teams (I was tied for lowest with one) and opinions on the usefulness of ADPs. One manager, who won our league last year, thinks that they are useless. His argument essentially boils down to the fact that the average Yahoo drafter isn't that bright and you should get the players you want when you want them and screw everyone else. Also, you win leagues by going against the grain and doing something that puts you in a position to win even if it means taking a chance on an unknown quantity.
I generally agree but with caveats. I aim for maximum value for every pick. For example, even if I think that Stephen Drew will outperform Jhonny Peralta this year, I will pick someone other than Stephen Drew until either draft situations force me to take him early (such as a huge run on SS that leaves fewer higher ADP players left than there are teams without SS between me and my next pick) or it is only a round before the ADP and another team needs a SS. The team in question took Stephen Drew in Round 11 with pick 146. His normal ADP is 210.
I think this is a reach because there were only two teams left who needed SS, by his calculations. One took J.J. Hardy and the other took Khalil Greene about 4 rounds later. Hardy is, by the vast majority of players, the higher ranked SS. I like Drew more than Hardy but not 4 rounds more; you're simply giving up the possibility of taking a higher ranked player now and grabbing Drew for better value later. While I understand the idea of locking up players you absolutely, desperately must have, I think it was highly unlikely that anyone else would have taken Drew during the next couple rounds. And I don't see Drew as one of those players anyway.
That said, this player values players very differently than I do. For example, I like Snell, Burnett, and Hudson better than Lilly. He does not. He likes Joakim Soria more than Trevor Hoffman. Again, I disagree. The results of the season will tell but I definitely think that he could have grabbed a better pitcher and waited for Drew for a round at least. It's an incremental upgrade, sure, but it's by these inches that leagues are won or lost.
I generally agree but with caveats. I aim for maximum value for every pick. For example, even if I think that Stephen Drew will outperform Jhonny Peralta this year, I will pick someone other than Stephen Drew until either draft situations force me to take him early (such as a huge run on SS that leaves fewer higher ADP players left than there are teams without SS between me and my next pick) or it is only a round before the ADP and another team needs a SS. The team in question took Stephen Drew in Round 11 with pick 146. His normal ADP is 210.
I think this is a reach because there were only two teams left who needed SS, by his calculations. One took J.J. Hardy and the other took Khalil Greene about 4 rounds later. Hardy is, by the vast majority of players, the higher ranked SS. I like Drew more than Hardy but not 4 rounds more; you're simply giving up the possibility of taking a higher ranked player now and grabbing Drew for better value later. While I understand the idea of locking up players you absolutely, desperately must have, I think it was highly unlikely that anyone else would have taken Drew during the next couple rounds. And I don't see Drew as one of those players anyway.
That said, this player values players very differently than I do. For example, I like Snell, Burnett, and Hudson better than Lilly. He does not. He likes Joakim Soria more than Trevor Hoffman. Again, I disagree. The results of the season will tell but I definitely think that he could have grabbed a better pitcher and waited for Drew for a round at least. It's an incremental upgrade, sure, but it's by these inches that leagues are won or lost.
Brewin' Up a Storm
Prince Fielder is not happy. This could be bad things down the line, particularly since Prince is represented by Scott Boras. As mentioned in Jason Kendall discussion, the Brewers have a few good, young players whom they have failed to sign to any long-term deals (Fielder, Braun, and Hart). Now, Braun and Hart just finished their first full years so they're not an immediate concern. However, Fielder is up for arbitration after this year. Ryan Howard just made $10 million in arbitration this season. Do you see where this is going?
The Kendall contract was only about $1.25-2.25 million above market in my opinion. A little of that could go a long way in keeping Fielder, Braun, and Hart happy in the coming years. But that's not nearly as much as Fielder is going to command in arbitration, let alone Braun and Hart. So let's take a closer look at the Brewers' payroll to see if they have any hope of keeping these guys around.
Overall, the Brewers are middle of the pack with a payroll between $73 and $77 million (using a few different projections as a range). The notable contracts include Ben Sheets for $11 million, Eric Gagne for $10 million, Jeff Suppan for $8 million, Mike Cameron for $5 million, David Riske for $4 million, and Bill Hall for $4.8 million. Now, Sheets is reasonable provided that he stays healthy; they also signed him a few years ago so there's not much to be done about his contract now. Mike Cameron is a good deal since he significantly upgrades their defense and pushes Bill hall to 3rd and Braun to left (once he's not suspended, of course). Bill Hall could bounce back and make his number reasonable. My real beef is with Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan, and David Riske's contracts (and of course, the ubiquitous Kendall).
The most obviously bad contract is Eric Gagne. He's fresh off a Jekyll and Hyde season, he's 32, and he's recently had arm trouble. During his time with Texas, he had 16 saves, a 2.16 ERA, and an OPS against of .546. After his trade to Boston to become a setup man for Papelbon, he had a 6.75 ERA and an OPS against of .856. So which is the real Eric Gagne?
It's hard to tell, really. He only threw 2 innings the year before so he might just have been gassed. Plus, he seemed able to pitch in a hitter's park in Arlington. He still has the intimidating mound presence and good stuff. Then again, his stuff, while still good, has significantly declined since his years with the Dodgers. His fastball, while still in the low-mid 90's, is still straight and not a strikeout pitch. With a smaller differential between it and his change-up and curveball, hitters are more apt to foul them off instead of flailing at the air. You can see it if you watch him pitch; hitters foul off more pitchers instead of swinging and missing. Plus, his control has slipped; even with the Rangers, his K/BB was only 2.42. During his peak years, he was posting K/BB above 5.00. That clearly points to declining skills and stuff.
Plus, some scouts have commented that he lacks the drive to get himself in great condition. Even at his best, he was never a paragon of fitness. Now that injuries and age have taken their toll a bit, he has to get himself into better shape. At 32, he's on the downside of his career particularly if he stays pudgy. He's being paid as if he's an elite closer when, clearly, he is not. Can he justify the $10 million he'll be paid this year? Maybe but I doubt it. Plus, the Brewers already have Derrick Turnbow. Sure, some of his outings are horrendous but he has a stellar strikeout rate, his OPS against last year as .581, and if his control improves even marginally, he might end up being better than Gagne.
Now think about what that $10 million could mean. That would mean another $10 million to invest for Fielder, Braun, and Hart. Combined with the Kendall signing, that could be another $12.25 million to put toward the young core of their team. Another million a year over three or four years for Fielder could mean the difference between locking him up through his first year or two of free agency or having to let him go once he can hit the free market. The fact that the Brewers are unilaterally renewing their contracts bodes badly for the Brewers' long-term prospects of making those deals. Now you see why bad contracts to veterans can make it hard for mid-market teams to keep their young talent.
More on this later because I have to actually work today.
The Kendall contract was only about $1.25-2.25 million above market in my opinion. A little of that could go a long way in keeping Fielder, Braun, and Hart happy in the coming years. But that's not nearly as much as Fielder is going to command in arbitration, let alone Braun and Hart. So let's take a closer look at the Brewers' payroll to see if they have any hope of keeping these guys around.
Overall, the Brewers are middle of the pack with a payroll between $73 and $77 million (using a few different projections as a range). The notable contracts include Ben Sheets for $11 million, Eric Gagne for $10 million, Jeff Suppan for $8 million, Mike Cameron for $5 million, David Riske for $4 million, and Bill Hall for $4.8 million. Now, Sheets is reasonable provided that he stays healthy; they also signed him a few years ago so there's not much to be done about his contract now. Mike Cameron is a good deal since he significantly upgrades their defense and pushes Bill hall to 3rd and Braun to left (once he's not suspended, of course). Bill Hall could bounce back and make his number reasonable. My real beef is with Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan, and David Riske's contracts (and of course, the ubiquitous Kendall).
The most obviously bad contract is Eric Gagne. He's fresh off a Jekyll and Hyde season, he's 32, and he's recently had arm trouble. During his time with Texas, he had 16 saves, a 2.16 ERA, and an OPS against of .546. After his trade to Boston to become a setup man for Papelbon, he had a 6.75 ERA and an OPS against of .856. So which is the real Eric Gagne?
It's hard to tell, really. He only threw 2 innings the year before so he might just have been gassed. Plus, he seemed able to pitch in a hitter's park in Arlington. He still has the intimidating mound presence and good stuff. Then again, his stuff, while still good, has significantly declined since his years with the Dodgers. His fastball, while still in the low-mid 90's, is still straight and not a strikeout pitch. With a smaller differential between it and his change-up and curveball, hitters are more apt to foul them off instead of flailing at the air. You can see it if you watch him pitch; hitters foul off more pitchers instead of swinging and missing. Plus, his control has slipped; even with the Rangers, his K/BB was only 2.42. During his peak years, he was posting K/BB above 5.00. That clearly points to declining skills and stuff.
Plus, some scouts have commented that he lacks the drive to get himself in great condition. Even at his best, he was never a paragon of fitness. Now that injuries and age have taken their toll a bit, he has to get himself into better shape. At 32, he's on the downside of his career particularly if he stays pudgy. He's being paid as if he's an elite closer when, clearly, he is not. Can he justify the $10 million he'll be paid this year? Maybe but I doubt it. Plus, the Brewers already have Derrick Turnbow. Sure, some of his outings are horrendous but he has a stellar strikeout rate, his OPS against last year as .581, and if his control improves even marginally, he might end up being better than Gagne.
Now think about what that $10 million could mean. That would mean another $10 million to invest for Fielder, Braun, and Hart. Combined with the Kendall signing, that could be another $12.25 million to put toward the young core of their team. Another million a year over three or four years for Fielder could mean the difference between locking him up through his first year or two of free agency or having to let him go once he can hit the free market. The fact that the Brewers are unilaterally renewing their contracts bodes badly for the Brewers' long-term prospects of making those deals. Now you see why bad contracts to veterans can make it hard for mid-market teams to keep their young talent.
More on this later because I have to actually work today.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
The Real All-Stars
I don't really have much to add to this story. It's really easy to look at the misbehaving superstars and immature super-prospects and think that baseball players are in it for the money, glory, and fame. But while that's true for some, there are players who are still in it because they love the game and the camaraderie that comes with being on a team.
I still miss playing soccer. I miss the way that mist rises off the grass early in the morning, leaving the ball damp and dark. I miss the way that a ball sounds when it hits the net; I miss the mass exhalation that players and fans share when the first goal of a game whispers into the goal. I miss joking around with the guys and eating orange slices during halftime. I never played for money, I never got any real glory or fame. But it was never about that. It was about playing for love of the game and for the love of your fellow players.
There are still guys out there in the Majors who can't give it up because they still love everything that baseball is. It's those guys that I root for because they are the heart of the game. They're the ones I identify with and who are closest to the fans. So let's focus less on what's wrong with baseball and take a little time to appreciate the good guys for all they've given us, the fans, and to the game itself.
I still miss playing soccer. I miss the way that mist rises off the grass early in the morning, leaving the ball damp and dark. I miss the way that a ball sounds when it hits the net; I miss the mass exhalation that players and fans share when the first goal of a game whispers into the goal. I miss joking around with the guys and eating orange slices during halftime. I never played for money, I never got any real glory or fame. But it was never about that. It was about playing for love of the game and for the love of your fellow players.
There are still guys out there in the Majors who can't give it up because they still love everything that baseball is. It's those guys that I root for because they are the heart of the game. They're the ones I identify with and who are closest to the fans. So let's focus less on what's wrong with baseball and take a little time to appreciate the good guys for all they've given us, the fans, and to the game itself.
Kendall Continues
I want to continue the conversation about Jason Kendall because I think it's relevant to player evaluation and worth. The comparison between Brad Ausmus and Jason Kendall was brought up. Ausmus made $4 million last year with the Astros. Now, that's horrible for obvious reasons but at least he had a WARP of 3.3 with positive defensive stats. Kendall had a fantastic WARP of 0.1 and 0.9 split between the A's and Cubs. PECOTA has them projected for WARPs of 1.3 and 1.7 for Ausmus and Kendall respectively (link for Ausmus and link for Kendall).
So they're both pretty terrible players at this point. But Kendall is making $4.25 million in guaranteed money this year. Ausmus is making $2 million. Also, PECOTA has Kendall down as a below average defensive catcher and that will only worsen with age. At least Ausmus still has a positive defensive rating.
That's the entire point, though. Ausmus is being properly valued as a defensively minded, veteran catcher who can help a rookie, Towles, make the transition into the bigs. Kendall is being paid as if he's still a starter, a guy who can positively contribute to the team offensively and defensively. And he can't do either, really. The contract is just horrid and above market any way you cut it.
Oh, and one other thing in Ausmus' favor: he went to Dartmouth. 'Nuff said.
So they're both pretty terrible players at this point. But Kendall is making $4.25 million in guaranteed money this year. Ausmus is making $2 million. Also, PECOTA has Kendall down as a below average defensive catcher and that will only worsen with age. At least Ausmus still has a positive defensive rating.
That's the entire point, though. Ausmus is being properly valued as a defensively minded, veteran catcher who can help a rookie, Towles, make the transition into the bigs. Kendall is being paid as if he's still a starter, a guy who can positively contribute to the team offensively and defensively. And he can't do either, really. The contract is just horrid and above market any way you cut it.
Oh, and one other thing in Ausmus' favor: he went to Dartmouth. 'Nuff said.
Corpas Collects
The Rockies locked up Manny Corpas long-term. Despite my usual aversion to long-term commitments to relievers, I actually like the deal. Essentially, the deal is for 4 years averaging a little more than $2 million a year, with club options for 2 more years including his last year of arbitration and first year of free agency. Those options, if exercised, could raise the overall value of the deal to over $22 million.
Corpas had a great year last year; while his K/9 wasn't great (6.69), he has a nasty sinker that generates lots of ground balls which is crucial in Colorado. That is supported by his sparkling HR/9 rate of 0.69. He's also young (25 years old) and does get lefties out as well. He held opponents to a .595 OPS last year. All of these numbers are the good side.
However, his K/9 rate may become problematic. I would wait and see if he might start striking out more guys once his secondary pitches develop. But the K/BB rate is fine (2.9 last year) so it's not a cause for too much concern. It really comes down to whether or not he can continue to close effectively. If so, the deal is great for both sides. The Rockies get cost certainty and Corpas gets financial security. Furthermore, the Rockies only really have to start shelling out money in the options years. By that point, they should know if he can handle the role. It's a smart gamble for them in the short and long-term.
Also, even if Corpas busts out and becomes a middle reliever, the contract is affordable enough for him to remain trade bait. There are always big-market teams looking for effective relievers. Just look at the money that the Yankees threw at Kyle Farnsworth. So the Rockies should be able to unload Corpas if they feel that they're not getting a good return. All in all, a good signing that might become great if Corpas can increase his strikeout rate and stay healthy.
Oh, and in Pirates news, Moskos was perfect in his spring debut. Silver linings, I guess.....but I'd still rather have Wieters.
Corpas had a great year last year; while his K/9 wasn't great (6.69), he has a nasty sinker that generates lots of ground balls which is crucial in Colorado. That is supported by his sparkling HR/9 rate of 0.69. He's also young (25 years old) and does get lefties out as well. He held opponents to a .595 OPS last year. All of these numbers are the good side.
However, his K/9 rate may become problematic. I would wait and see if he might start striking out more guys once his secondary pitches develop. But the K/BB rate is fine (2.9 last year) so it's not a cause for too much concern. It really comes down to whether or not he can continue to close effectively. If so, the deal is great for both sides. The Rockies get cost certainty and Corpas gets financial security. Furthermore, the Rockies only really have to start shelling out money in the options years. By that point, they should know if he can handle the role. It's a smart gamble for them in the short and long-term.
Also, even if Corpas busts out and becomes a middle reliever, the contract is affordable enough for him to remain trade bait. There are always big-market teams looking for effective relievers. Just look at the money that the Yankees threw at Kyle Farnsworth. So the Rockies should be able to unload Corpas if they feel that they're not getting a good return. All in all, a good signing that might become great if Corpas can increase his strikeout rate and stay healthy.
Oh, and in Pirates news, Moskos was perfect in his spring debut. Silver linings, I guess.....but I'd still rather have Wieters.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Pitcher Up! and Other Thoughts
I wrote to Chris Jaffe yesterday about my blog post responding to his piece and he replied promptly. I won't post the email here but he basically said that park factors matter a whole lot more than he had anticipated. For example, the Green Monster at Fenway screws up the system due to its immense height; hitting a ball more than 10 feet over it or a wall's length beyond it is pretty damn difficult. I'm sure others are working on figuring in park factors for those numbers. I'm too lazy to do it myself at the moment but once I hear more, I'll post it here. In any case, Chris Jaffe is a great guy so please, continue to read his stuff at the Hardball Times.
Now, in other musings:
Apparently, Ned Yost is thinking about batting Jason Kendall 9th and putting the pitcher in the 8 hole. Now, Kendall had an OPS of .610 in 2007. Yup, that number is not a typo. To put this monumental suckage in perspective, Dontrelle Willis has a career OPS of .639 and Carlos Zambrano has a career OPS of .580. While I would prefer for Yost to bat Kendall 34th in the lineup, that isn't possible, at least not in this universe (but maybe in this one, if we're lucky). If Kendall does continue to get on-base closer to his career clip of .375 and not the horrid .301 that he posted last year, this move makes a lot of sense especially if Braun hits 2nd. Tony la Russa hit his pitcher 8th last year with some moderate success and the writers of "The Book" seem to agree that this could produce an extra couple runs a year. So all in all it's a fine gambit that will probably seem odd to purists but will continue to put a smile on the face of theorists around the globe. Whether or not Joe Maddon will try out his new kryptonite strategy against Big Papi and A-Rod remains to be seen.
But lost in all of this theory is the fact that Jason Kendall is a horrible ballplayer. In what world is he worth $4.25 million guaranteed with another $1 million incentives? He's worse than Neifi Perez since Perez was paid "only" $2.5 million last year to be absolutely horrible. On a side note, did you know that Perez has made nearly $21 million during his career to post a lifetime OPS+ of 64? So having Kendall hit anywhere is a loss for the Brewers, those 2 runs be damned. I am sick of teams throwing money at veteran players who have only proven that they suck. Give the kids a chance and if they fail, at least you're only out a bit of money as opposed to the millions that Kendall, Perez, and their ilk soak up. Plus, who knows when you'll hit pay dirt?
Now, on to veterans who deserve jobs, or fliers at least. I must admit that I am surprised that Barry Bonds does not have a job. No matter what drama he brings, the guy can flat out hit. For example, if the Mariners added Bonds to their lineup, they would have a legitimate chance to challenge the Angels. Plus, Bonds wouldn't be a significant downgrade defensively over Raul "The Statue" Ibanez if at all and he would be a HUGE (and I mean HUGE) upgrade offensively over Jose "Why Do I Have a Job" Vidro. That said, I'd still take Adam Jones back and start preparing for the future. But then again, maybe the M's will defy logic and statistics and somehow rip the division away from the Angels. Though if they do, I'll shave my head. Promise.
The situation for David Wells is more difficult. I have to admit that I am fond of Boomer if only because he actually got a case of gout (beat that, Bartolo Colon!). Regardless, I think that he should at least get a minor league deal as extra insurance for a team with a young rotation, much like Bartolo Colon received. No matter what his physical shape, Wells throws strikes. Sure, he gets hit much harder now than he did before but he's a great clubhouse guy who knows a ton about pitching. There are plenty of teams out of contention who could use a guy to soak up some innings to keep inning counts down for young arms and options/service time unused for replacement starters when the inevitable injury bug hits. Plus, he'd cost a whole hell of a lot less than Jason Kendall and might even provide more value. And as a final benefit, he could even lead these guys in a pinch.
That's it for tonight. More about manatees tomorrow.
Now, in other musings:
Apparently, Ned Yost is thinking about batting Jason Kendall 9th and putting the pitcher in the 8 hole. Now, Kendall had an OPS of .610 in 2007. Yup, that number is not a typo. To put this monumental suckage in perspective, Dontrelle Willis has a career OPS of .639 and Carlos Zambrano has a career OPS of .580. While I would prefer for Yost to bat Kendall 34th in the lineup, that isn't possible, at least not in this universe (but maybe in this one, if we're lucky). If Kendall does continue to get on-base closer to his career clip of .375 and not the horrid .301 that he posted last year, this move makes a lot of sense especially if Braun hits 2nd. Tony la Russa hit his pitcher 8th last year with some moderate success and the writers of "The Book" seem to agree that this could produce an extra couple runs a year. So all in all it's a fine gambit that will probably seem odd to purists but will continue to put a smile on the face of theorists around the globe. Whether or not Joe Maddon will try out his new kryptonite strategy against Big Papi and A-Rod remains to be seen.
But lost in all of this theory is the fact that Jason Kendall is a horrible ballplayer. In what world is he worth $4.25 million guaranteed with another $1 million incentives? He's worse than Neifi Perez since Perez was paid "only" $2.5 million last year to be absolutely horrible. On a side note, did you know that Perez has made nearly $21 million during his career to post a lifetime OPS+ of 64? So having Kendall hit anywhere is a loss for the Brewers, those 2 runs be damned. I am sick of teams throwing money at veteran players who have only proven that they suck. Give the kids a chance and if they fail, at least you're only out a bit of money as opposed to the millions that Kendall, Perez, and their ilk soak up. Plus, who knows when you'll hit pay dirt?
Now, on to veterans who deserve jobs, or fliers at least. I must admit that I am surprised that Barry Bonds does not have a job. No matter what drama he brings, the guy can flat out hit. For example, if the Mariners added Bonds to their lineup, they would have a legitimate chance to challenge the Angels. Plus, Bonds wouldn't be a significant downgrade defensively over Raul "The Statue" Ibanez if at all and he would be a HUGE (and I mean HUGE) upgrade offensively over Jose "Why Do I Have a Job" Vidro. That said, I'd still take Adam Jones back and start preparing for the future. But then again, maybe the M's will defy logic and statistics and somehow rip the division away from the Angels. Though if they do, I'll shave my head. Promise.
The situation for David Wells is more difficult. I have to admit that I am fond of Boomer if only because he actually got a case of gout (beat that, Bartolo Colon!). Regardless, I think that he should at least get a minor league deal as extra insurance for a team with a young rotation, much like Bartolo Colon received. No matter what his physical shape, Wells throws strikes. Sure, he gets hit much harder now than he did before but he's a great clubhouse guy who knows a ton about pitching. There are plenty of teams out of contention who could use a guy to soak up some innings to keep inning counts down for young arms and options/service time unused for replacement starters when the inevitable injury bug hits. Plus, he'd cost a whole hell of a lot less than Jason Kendall and might even provide more value. And as a final benefit, he could even lead these guys in a pinch.
That's it for tonight. More about manatees tomorrow.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Length Matters
So I was reading the Hardball Times today and ran across this gem. The article discusses home run length and uses statistics from Hit Tracker to break down "no doubt," "plenty," "just enough," and "lucky" home runs. The first two categories seem throwaway since they contain homers that were plenty far enough so no matter what, they were leaving the yard. It's the second two categories ("just enough" and "lucky") that Rob Neyer talks about here (subscription needed) that warrant discussion. The Jaffe piece argues that teams and players with high percentages of "just enoughs" will have a higher probability of regression the next year. Notable teams and players include the Red Sox (36% compared to a league average 29%), Giants (43% cheap), Brandon Phillips (14 of 30 cheap), and David Wright (12 of 30 cheap). Jaffe then suggests that one can better predict a team or player's home run rate by normalizing their "just enoughs" to the league average of roughly 29%.
My problem with his analysis is that he does not take into account what I call "just misses." For every ball that makes it over the wall by ten feet or falls one wall's length beyond the wall (the threshold for "just enough"), there is in all likelihood a ball that falls short by the same amount (a "just miss"). If we normalize home run rates by adjusting "just enough" rates to the league average, we need to do the same for "just misses." Without "just miss" rates, we really have no concrete way to know whether or not Gary Sheffield's ridiculously low "just enough" rate of 4.17% is attributable to the kind of contact he makes or to horribly bad luck with fly balls within the "just miss" threshold. For all we know, he hit tons of balls that died short of the wall that could potentially be homers next year. We need to know "just miss" rates for individual players as well as the league average so we can normalize correctly on both ends.
Furthermore, Jaffe doesn't take the full effect of weather into account. For every fly ball that becomes a homer just because of favorable weather conditions ("lucky"), there is in all likelihood a fly ball that fails to go over the fence because of adverse conditions ("unlucky"). For example, David Wright had 10 "lucky" home runs last year. However, to accurately predict the overall effect of weather on Wright's home run rate, we have to know how many "unlucky" fly balls he hit. Additionally, we have to know the average rate of "unlucky" fly balls for the league so we can normalize his rate for predictive purposes. This will give us a complete picture of Wright's overall luck factor by taking in both the positive and negative effects of weather.
TLDR: Unless we can normalize for "just misses" and "unlucky" fly balls, we do not have a way to accurately predict home run rates through Jaffe's method. I hope he continues his analysis by taking this into account because it's a fascinating line of research; he simply needs to get both halves of the whole to see if there's a correlation to be found.
Sorry that there's not more to be posted today. Some things came up and I don't have more time to blog at the moment. But don't worry, I'll be plenty bored at work tomorrow so there should be more updates then.
My problem with his analysis is that he does not take into account what I call "just misses." For every ball that makes it over the wall by ten feet or falls one wall's length beyond the wall (the threshold for "just enough"), there is in all likelihood a ball that falls short by the same amount (a "just miss"). If we normalize home run rates by adjusting "just enough" rates to the league average, we need to do the same for "just misses." Without "just miss" rates, we really have no concrete way to know whether or not Gary Sheffield's ridiculously low "just enough" rate of 4.17% is attributable to the kind of contact he makes or to horribly bad luck with fly balls within the "just miss" threshold. For all we know, he hit tons of balls that died short of the wall that could potentially be homers next year. We need to know "just miss" rates for individual players as well as the league average so we can normalize correctly on both ends.
Furthermore, Jaffe doesn't take the full effect of weather into account. For every fly ball that becomes a homer just because of favorable weather conditions ("lucky"), there is in all likelihood a fly ball that fails to go over the fence because of adverse conditions ("unlucky"). For example, David Wright had 10 "lucky" home runs last year. However, to accurately predict the overall effect of weather on Wright's home run rate, we have to know how many "unlucky" fly balls he hit. Additionally, we have to know the average rate of "unlucky" fly balls for the league so we can normalize his rate for predictive purposes. This will give us a complete picture of Wright's overall luck factor by taking in both the positive and negative effects of weather.
TLDR: Unless we can normalize for "just misses" and "unlucky" fly balls, we do not have a way to accurately predict home run rates through Jaffe's method. I hope he continues his analysis by taking this into account because it's a fascinating line of research; he simply needs to get both halves of the whole to see if there's a correlation to be found.
Sorry that there's not more to be posted today. Some things came up and I don't have more time to blog at the moment. But don't worry, I'll be plenty bored at work tomorrow so there should be more updates then.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
The Fat Man Signeth (and other news)
So the big (and I mean big) news of the day is that the fattest man in baseball finally signed today (and no, I haven't checked if he's actually the fattest. That's entirely besides the point and if you want to waste your life looking up that particular stat, you have far too much time on your hands). Most of the details haven't leaked but if the ESPN report is true and there is absolutely no money guaranteed, then it's a great upside play for the Red Sox. While Colon hasn't impressed this spring so far, he still has rebound potential and, as this breakdown suggests, there is upside here. Now, the story with Colon is always his conditioning and his health. They are very much related; you simply cannot weigh as much as Colon does and expect to anything other than disaster. That's why the Red Sox signing is so good. The only way Colon gets spending money for Ho-Hos is if he gets his ass in shape. That should be motivation enough and if he gets himself back to 80%, then he should be able to provide some insurance in case Buchholz needs spelling to keep his innings down, Wakefield's knuckler starts dancing like this guy on Dancing with the Stars, or Schilling turned out to be telling the truth about his shoulder. As much as I hate the Red Sox, Epstein and Co. run a tight ship and this is a great signing.
In other news, Brad Lidge managed to hurt himself on his first pitch off a mound. Big surprise. I know that people absolutely destroyed Ed Wade for some of his trades this offseason. Some were warranted. But Lidge, while possessing lethal stuff, is fresh off one surgery and is heading for another. He had a couple great seasons but never seemed to regain his aura of invincibility after he gave up that monster homer to Pujols. The Astros didn't get a ton for Lidge (outfielder Michael Bourn, pitcher Geoff Geary, and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo) but at the very least, they're not paying his salary this season. The less money they spend this year the more money they'll have to lock up players like Hunter Pence to long-term contracts. A team that should be rebuilding doesn't have the luxury of paying millions to relievers (particularly given reliever volatility). So even if they didn't get the best possible return on Lidge, it sure beats $5+ million to him this year to sit out for the beginning of the year and be a head case for the rest of it. That said, Ed Wade is still an idiot.
In vaguely related news, my girlfriend often says that my feet look like manatees. While being strange and somewhat disturbing, this is also untrue. These guys look like manatees. Hell, it's even their freaking NAME. And while I support gender equality when it comes to cheerleaders, I'm going to spend more time looking at the Mermaids.
In other news, Brad Lidge managed to hurt himself on his first pitch off a mound. Big surprise. I know that people absolutely destroyed Ed Wade for some of his trades this offseason. Some were warranted. But Lidge, while possessing lethal stuff, is fresh off one surgery and is heading for another. He had a couple great seasons but never seemed to regain his aura of invincibility after he gave up that monster homer to Pujols. The Astros didn't get a ton for Lidge (outfielder Michael Bourn, pitcher Geoff Geary, and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo) but at the very least, they're not paying his salary this season. The less money they spend this year the more money they'll have to lock up players like Hunter Pence to long-term contracts. A team that should be rebuilding doesn't have the luxury of paying millions to relievers (particularly given reliever volatility). So even if they didn't get the best possible return on Lidge, it sure beats $5+ million to him this year to sit out for the beginning of the year and be a head case for the rest of it. That said, Ed Wade is still an idiot.
In vaguely related news, my girlfriend often says that my feet look like manatees. While being strange and somewhat disturbing, this is also untrue. These guys look like manatees. Hell, it's even their freaking NAME. And while I support gender equality when it comes to cheerleaders, I'm going to spend more time looking at the Mermaids.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Season Preview (part II)
Sorry about the delay; we have a guest coming over tomorrow so a clean-up was in order. Here is the rest of the list:
5) The Royals and the Rays: When most fans think about these teams, their first thought is futility. These franchises have embodied the concept for the last several seasons. However, there is breakout potential for both. The Rays may finally get some pitching to go with a surprisingly potent offense that will only improve with the addition of Evan Longoria if Kazmir and Shields continue to make strides, Garza becomes a suitable #3, and Price, McGee, et al. fulfill at least some of their potential. Their bullpen only has to be better with Wheeler and Percival so we'll be spared the brutality of Shawn Camp, Chad Orvella, etc. With the Orioles rebuilding and the Blue Jays potentially overrated (and as last year showed, brittle), the Rays should avoid the basement and might even place third! Crazy what a difference a year can make (and #1 picks help).
As for the Royals, they were a better team than the White Sox last year (just check the run differentials) and not much worse than the Twins. With the White Sox trading away the farm for Nick Swisher and still not addressing a horrible lack of pitching depth (along with a sub-par infield), the Royals have an opening, especially now that the Twins are officially in rebuilding mode. Teahen and DeJesus should bounce back, Billy Butler should mash, and Alex Gordon should build on a good second half to display his prodigious abilities. I actually like the potential in their rotation, particularly if Zack Greinke stops battling his boogeymen and focuses on the guy in the batter's box. Sure, that bullpen may have less name recognition than third Manning brother but at least they're not running Juan Uribe out there every day.
4) The NL West: My girlfriend, a Padres fan, thinks that this should rank higher but I like it right here. Why? Because it's a division in which four teams have a legitimate chance to win the division (everyone except the Giants). The Diamondbacks, who won the division last year, actually had a worse run differential than the other three contenders. The addition of Dan Haren should help but by how much? The Rockies had a miracle run last year but can they repeat it? The Padres have a great pitching staff but collapsed down the stretch last year. Can they hit enough to take advantage of their pitching advantage? Lastly, the Dodgers have a great core of young players. Will Joe "I like older men" Torre give the kids enough chances to succeed or will he plague us all with more Juan "I wish I could steal first" Pierre? This battle should last right up the wire like last season. I'm only hoping that this time around, someone checks to see if Matt Holliday actually touches home.
No, I'm not bitter. Ok, maybe a little. But I'm not the only one.
3) The NL Central: This is the division that no one seems to want. Sure, the Cubs and Brewers are better than the other teams but is it really much of an accomplishment to better than the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates? The Brewers can hit, no doubt, but their starting pitching is awful and once Ben Sheets takes his yearly pilgrimage to the DL, it's going to get uglier than Ricky Martin at sixty-five. The Cubs have more questions with their lineup (especially if Fukudome struggles) but at least they have Carlos Marmol to close out games once they get over this Bob Howry nonsense and drink their Marmol-ade. But they'll still be relying on Jason Marquis and the remains of Jon "Lefties make me pee my pants" Lieber to hold up the back end of that rotation. This could be an ugly division but in a train-wreck-in-slow-motion kind of way. It will be compelling theater for the exact opposite reason that the NL West will be so good. Just Tivo it so the kiddies can't watch and you'll see what I mean.
2) The AL East: As a Yankees fan (and no, I don't think Joba Chamberlain can cure cancer), this normally would be my #1 storyline. However, not much happened this off-season to justify too much hype. Sure, A-Rod re-signed for the GDP of Andorra, but the biggest storyline was a trade that never impacted the division (see storyline #8). Still, the Red Sox and Yankees still look like great teams that should pummel each other about the head and neck for the entire season. Plus, the Rays shouldn't be pushovers (see storyline #5) and the Blue Jays are dangerous if healthy. Sure, the Orioles are going to be terrible but at least their management realized that they weren't going anywhere and pulled the trigger on the Bedard trade. Plus, it's possible that winning the division will be the only way into the playoffs for the BoSox and Yanks because of the two powerhouses in...
1) The AL Central: With one blockbuster trade, the Tigers instantly turned themselves into true contenders for not only their division, but for best team in baseball. Miguel Cabrera turns that lineup into a combination of Charybdis and Echidna (the mythological creature, not the cute mammal). It's truly pick your poison and if Sheffield is healthy, that team is going to score more than Wilt Chamberlain. However, their rotation is their potentially fatal flaw. If Dontrelle Willis continues to decline (and I think he will), then they're going to have to win a lot of 8-6 games. Without Zumaya and possibly Rodney, that bullpen suddenly looks pretty vulnerable too. Meanwhile, the Indians were quiet over the offseason but didn't have much work to do. They still have an outstanding 1-2 punch in Sabathia and Carmona along with an outstanding bullpen (well, beside their closer). The offense isn't as explosive as the Tigers' but it's plenty good especially if Pronk rebounds and stops staring at Grady Sizemore wistfully during at-bats. Sure, he's dreamy, but I picked your team to win it all last year SO DON'T LET ME DOWN AGAIN.
And with that, the list ends. Feel free to crush my list in the comments section. There's just one rule: no poking fun at Grady. He's a dreamboat and I won't hear otherwise.
5) The Royals and the Rays: When most fans think about these teams, their first thought is futility. These franchises have embodied the concept for the last several seasons. However, there is breakout potential for both. The Rays may finally get some pitching to go with a surprisingly potent offense that will only improve with the addition of Evan Longoria if Kazmir and Shields continue to make strides, Garza becomes a suitable #3, and Price, McGee, et al. fulfill at least some of their potential. Their bullpen only has to be better with Wheeler and Percival so we'll be spared the brutality of Shawn Camp, Chad Orvella, etc. With the Orioles rebuilding and the Blue Jays potentially overrated (and as last year showed, brittle), the Rays should avoid the basement and might even place third! Crazy what a difference a year can make (and #1 picks help).
As for the Royals, they were a better team than the White Sox last year (just check the run differentials) and not much worse than the Twins. With the White Sox trading away the farm for Nick Swisher and still not addressing a horrible lack of pitching depth (along with a sub-par infield), the Royals have an opening, especially now that the Twins are officially in rebuilding mode. Teahen and DeJesus should bounce back, Billy Butler should mash, and Alex Gordon should build on a good second half to display his prodigious abilities. I actually like the potential in their rotation, particularly if Zack Greinke stops battling his boogeymen and focuses on the guy in the batter's box. Sure, that bullpen may have less name recognition than third Manning brother but at least they're not running Juan Uribe out there every day.
4) The NL West: My girlfriend, a Padres fan, thinks that this should rank higher but I like it right here. Why? Because it's a division in which four teams have a legitimate chance to win the division (everyone except the Giants). The Diamondbacks, who won the division last year, actually had a worse run differential than the other three contenders. The addition of Dan Haren should help but by how much? The Rockies had a miracle run last year but can they repeat it? The Padres have a great pitching staff but collapsed down the stretch last year. Can they hit enough to take advantage of their pitching advantage? Lastly, the Dodgers have a great core of young players. Will Joe "I like older men" Torre give the kids enough chances to succeed or will he plague us all with more Juan "I wish I could steal first" Pierre? This battle should last right up the wire like last season. I'm only hoping that this time around, someone checks to see if Matt Holliday actually touches home.
No, I'm not bitter. Ok, maybe a little. But I'm not the only one.
3) The NL Central: This is the division that no one seems to want. Sure, the Cubs and Brewers are better than the other teams but is it really much of an accomplishment to better than the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates? The Brewers can hit, no doubt, but their starting pitching is awful and once Ben Sheets takes his yearly pilgrimage to the DL, it's going to get uglier than Ricky Martin at sixty-five. The Cubs have more questions with their lineup (especially if Fukudome struggles) but at least they have Carlos Marmol to close out games once they get over this Bob Howry nonsense and drink their Marmol-ade. But they'll still be relying on Jason Marquis and the remains of Jon "Lefties make me pee my pants" Lieber to hold up the back end of that rotation. This could be an ugly division but in a train-wreck-in-slow-motion kind of way. It will be compelling theater for the exact opposite reason that the NL West will be so good. Just Tivo it so the kiddies can't watch and you'll see what I mean.
2) The AL East: As a Yankees fan (and no, I don't think Joba Chamberlain can cure cancer), this normally would be my #1 storyline. However, not much happened this off-season to justify too much hype. Sure, A-Rod re-signed for the GDP of Andorra, but the biggest storyline was a trade that never impacted the division (see storyline #8). Still, the Red Sox and Yankees still look like great teams that should pummel each other about the head and neck for the entire season. Plus, the Rays shouldn't be pushovers (see storyline #5) and the Blue Jays are dangerous if healthy. Sure, the Orioles are going to be terrible but at least their management realized that they weren't going anywhere and pulled the trigger on the Bedard trade. Plus, it's possible that winning the division will be the only way into the playoffs for the BoSox and Yanks because of the two powerhouses in...
1) The AL Central: With one blockbuster trade, the Tigers instantly turned themselves into true contenders for not only their division, but for best team in baseball. Miguel Cabrera turns that lineup into a combination of Charybdis and Echidna (the mythological creature, not the cute mammal). It's truly pick your poison and if Sheffield is healthy, that team is going to score more than Wilt Chamberlain. However, their rotation is their potentially fatal flaw. If Dontrelle Willis continues to decline (and I think he will), then they're going to have to win a lot of 8-6 games. Without Zumaya and possibly Rodney, that bullpen suddenly looks pretty vulnerable too. Meanwhile, the Indians were quiet over the offseason but didn't have much work to do. They still have an outstanding 1-2 punch in Sabathia and Carmona along with an outstanding bullpen (well, beside their closer). The offense isn't as explosive as the Tigers' but it's plenty good especially if Pronk rebounds and stops staring at Grady Sizemore wistfully during at-bats. Sure, he's dreamy, but I picked your team to win it all last year SO DON'T LET ME DOWN AGAIN.
And with that, the list ends. Feel free to crush my list in the comments section. There's just one rule: no poking fun at Grady. He's a dreamboat and I won't hear otherwise.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Season Preview (Part 1)
I believe that 2008 is going to be one of the best years in recent memory. Despite all of the distractions (read: PEDs and that will be the last time we speak of them) circulating around the game, the game itself is in remarkably great shape. There are intriguing stories around the entire league and incredibly exciting division battles waiting to happen. Along those lines, here are the top 10 storylines I can't wait to watch this year:
10) Young Pitching: Due to the skyrocketing cost of acquiring mid-level pitchers on the open market (more here), more teams are taking chances with young pitchers from their own systems. It's always great to see fresh blood (and less Jeff Weaver et al.) and the inherent volatility of young pitching lends itself to great stories. Will Clay Buchholz and John Lester outduel Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy in the AL East? Can Ubaldo Jimenez finally harness his stuff and stop walking everyone including my dead grandfather? Who will step up for the Twins(maybe these guys)? And that's just a small sampling of what awaits us.
9) The Big Trades (not named Johan): This offseason saw little happen in the free agent market (other than Carlos Silva making GMs across the game cringe with his 4 year/$48 million dollar deal) but lots of movement in the trade market. Big names like Miguel "I swear I didn't do steroids" Tejada, Nick Swisher, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Dan Haren switched teams while hordes of prospects came back to their former owners. Now the big question is: who won these trades? While it may seem obvious in some instances (ahem.... why the hell do the Astros and White Sox think they have a chance to contend?), others are not so clear cut. Miguel Cabrera can rake, no doubt, but can Dontrelle provide enough value to soften the blow of losing young, affordable superstars-in-waiting like Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin? Will Dan Haren be more his first half self or second half self? I honestly can't wait to see how all these moves pan out.
8) The Big Trade Named Johan (sort of): So this may be the #1 storyline to watch for those who don't find the Mets' HR apple unbearably annoying, but I honestly think that the Mets' fate rests more in the hands of the other pitchers on the staff. Johan is a known quantity (his late season swoon last year will be ancient history by May) and he should destroy the junior varsity. But the health of Pedro Martinez's shoulder will decide their fate far more. They simply don't have the starting pitching depth to rebound from significant injuries unless they try to rewind the clock and turn Aaron Heilman back into a starter (good luck with your bullpen then). So even if Johan wins 22 games and saves an entire bus load of Catholic schoolchildren from Megatron, the Mets will be mush by September if Pedro's shoulder blows out, El Duque finally succumbs to the ravages of 147 years of life, and they are forced to rely upon (shudder) their farm system for help.
7) The Seattle Experiment: I know that while the Bedard trade (details here) has been brutally lambasted by pretty much every sportswriter in the Western hemisphere (myself included), we could all be surprised. Although some of you are probably chuckling to yourselves, I'm being serious. Vladimir Guerrero's bum knee could finally cry uncle and make one of his legs a LOT shorter than the other. Howie Kendrick might turn out to be a bust (or at least empty average). Juan Rivera's leg might break off again, completing the gimpy set with Vlad. K-Rod might take advantage the leg situation and put up a new sign for the "Club-house," leading to a hilarious, hopping showdown in the locker room.
Ok, I'm grasping for straws. Bill Bavasi is an idiot.
6) Mr. Met vs. the Phillie Phanatic: The war of words between the Mets and Phils reached new heights today with suggestions that a fight might be in order. While I like the idea of a real fight, Nolan Ryan style, on a baseball field, I think there is a far better match-up available here than Pedro vs. Jaime Moyer in a slow-tossing contest (and no, I'm not talking about Brett Myers in a rematch vs his wife). I'm talking about Mr. Met vs. the Phillie Phanatic. Both are idiotic, irritating cast-offs from some bizarro Muppets show. Both deserve to die. The solution? A winner-take-all deathmatch between the two mascots for the division title. Weapons are open to debate, though I personally prefer knives. Why? Because they hurt more and take longer to kill you.
The rest of the list will follow in the morning.
10) Young Pitching: Due to the skyrocketing cost of acquiring mid-level pitchers on the open market (more here), more teams are taking chances with young pitchers from their own systems. It's always great to see fresh blood (and less Jeff Weaver et al.) and the inherent volatility of young pitching lends itself to great stories. Will Clay Buchholz and John Lester outduel Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy in the AL East? Can Ubaldo Jimenez finally harness his stuff and stop walking everyone including my dead grandfather? Who will step up for the Twins(maybe these guys)? And that's just a small sampling of what awaits us.
9) The Big Trades (not named Johan): This offseason saw little happen in the free agent market (other than Carlos Silva making GMs across the game cringe with his 4 year/$48 million dollar deal) but lots of movement in the trade market. Big names like Miguel "I swear I didn't do steroids" Tejada, Nick Swisher, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Dan Haren switched teams while hordes of prospects came back to their former owners. Now the big question is: who won these trades? While it may seem obvious in some instances (ahem.... why the hell do the Astros and White Sox think they have a chance to contend?), others are not so clear cut. Miguel Cabrera can rake, no doubt, but can Dontrelle provide enough value to soften the blow of losing young, affordable superstars-in-waiting like Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin? Will Dan Haren be more his first half self or second half self? I honestly can't wait to see how all these moves pan out.
8) The Big Trade Named Johan (sort of): So this may be the #1 storyline to watch for those who don't find the Mets' HR apple unbearably annoying, but I honestly think that the Mets' fate rests more in the hands of the other pitchers on the staff. Johan is a known quantity (his late season swoon last year will be ancient history by May) and he should destroy the junior varsity. But the health of Pedro Martinez's shoulder will decide their fate far more. They simply don't have the starting pitching depth to rebound from significant injuries unless they try to rewind the clock and turn Aaron Heilman back into a starter (good luck with your bullpen then). So even if Johan wins 22 games and saves an entire bus load of Catholic schoolchildren from Megatron, the Mets will be mush by September if Pedro's shoulder blows out, El Duque finally succumbs to the ravages of 147 years of life, and they are forced to rely upon (shudder) their farm system for help.
7) The Seattle Experiment: I know that while the Bedard trade (details here) has been brutally lambasted by pretty much every sportswriter in the Western hemisphere (myself included), we could all be surprised. Although some of you are probably chuckling to yourselves, I'm being serious. Vladimir Guerrero's bum knee could finally cry uncle and make one of his legs a LOT shorter than the other. Howie Kendrick might turn out to be a bust (or at least empty average). Juan Rivera's leg might break off again, completing the gimpy set with Vlad. K-Rod might take advantage the leg situation and put up a new sign for the "Club-house," leading to a hilarious, hopping showdown in the locker room.
Ok, I'm grasping for straws. Bill Bavasi is an idiot.
6) Mr. Met vs. the Phillie Phanatic: The war of words between the Mets and Phils reached new heights today with suggestions that a fight might be in order. While I like the idea of a real fight, Nolan Ryan style, on a baseball field, I think there is a far better match-up available here than Pedro vs. Jaime Moyer in a slow-tossing contest (and no, I'm not talking about Brett Myers in a rematch vs his wife). I'm talking about Mr. Met vs. the Phillie Phanatic. Both are idiotic, irritating cast-offs from some bizarro Muppets show. Both deserve to die. The solution? A winner-take-all deathmatch between the two mascots for the division title. Weapons are open to debate, though I personally prefer knives. Why? Because they hurt more and take longer to kill you.
The rest of the list will follow in the morning.
My girlfriend doesn't actually hate baseball
but she does hate hearing me talk about it all day, night, and whatever lies between. Now that this little tidbit is cleared up (and I won't have to sleep on the couch tonight), a little about how I came to blog about baseball.
My love for baseball manifested itself late. Growing up, my parents didn't have much use for the sport; after making the last out during the Little League playoffs in second grade, I swore off the game. After all, standing around for minutes at a time at that age is damn near close to torture. So my attention wandered to other, more immediately gratifying sports like tennis and soccer.
After arriving in my college dorm during my freshman year of college, I heard a significant amount of swearing emerging from the room next to mine. Like a trained pig searching for truffles, I found myself drawn to the source of salty language. To my surprise, a small, disgruntled Asian guy was sitting on his floor, hurling imprecations at Mariano Rivera's heritage, parents' marital status at his birth, and views on incest. Introductions quickly followed and despite the fact that I came from New York, we quickly became friends. My interest in baseball was reignited and grew beyond mocking my friend's predicament as a Rangers fan.
This blog will focus on both real and fantasy baseball. The vast majority of my posts will focus on happenings and musings in the world of actual baseball; however, I openly invite guests to submit posts on real and fantasy baseball alike. I will try to incorporate statistical analysis into more traditional methods of evaluation since there are many ways to view the game. I invite guest posters to do the same.
Since my girlfriend is getting bored of me typing this post, I'll try to wrap it up. I am leaving comments open for now. Moderation is on but if everything goes well, I can turn it off. Many of the points that will be raised will create arguments, which is great! That's what is fun about talking about baseball. Just try to keep it civil and please, no trolling! Back up your opinions with facts and all will be well :)
Thanks for reading this far; this should be a great season!
My love for baseball manifested itself late. Growing up, my parents didn't have much use for the sport; after making the last out during the Little League playoffs in second grade, I swore off the game. After all, standing around for minutes at a time at that age is damn near close to torture. So my attention wandered to other, more immediately gratifying sports like tennis and soccer.
After arriving in my college dorm during my freshman year of college, I heard a significant amount of swearing emerging from the room next to mine. Like a trained pig searching for truffles, I found myself drawn to the source of salty language. To my surprise, a small, disgruntled Asian guy was sitting on his floor, hurling imprecations at Mariano Rivera's heritage, parents' marital status at his birth, and views on incest. Introductions quickly followed and despite the fact that I came from New York, we quickly became friends. My interest in baseball was reignited and grew beyond mocking my friend's predicament as a Rangers fan.
This blog will focus on both real and fantasy baseball. The vast majority of my posts will focus on happenings and musings in the world of actual baseball; however, I openly invite guests to submit posts on real and fantasy baseball alike. I will try to incorporate statistical analysis into more traditional methods of evaluation since there are many ways to view the game. I invite guest posters to do the same.
Since my girlfriend is getting bored of me typing this post, I'll try to wrap it up. I am leaving comments open for now. Moderation is on but if everything goes well, I can turn it off. Many of the points that will be raised will create arguments, which is great! That's what is fun about talking about baseball. Just try to keep it civil and please, no trolling! Back up your opinions with facts and all will be well :)
Thanks for reading this far; this should be a great season!
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